The Brewers have done very well with draft picks in the back half of the first round, and their college focus there lines up well with the rise of their best international free-agent signings from a few years back into full-season ball. It’s a surprisingly robust system with depth in center field and some interesting shortstops.
GO DEEPER
MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. Jackson Chourio, OF (Top 100 ranking: No. 3)
Age (on July 1): 19 | 6-1 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
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Chourio won’t even turn 19 until March, but he was the second-best hitter in the Low-A Carolina League thanks to a .600 slugging percentage there that ranked second only to a 23-year-old college product. The Brewers bumped him up to High A, where he continued to hit and show power, so much so that they gave him a brief cup of coffee in Double A to end the year, which probably means he’ll start there in 2023 as a true 19-year-old. He’s a plus-plus runner who still hasn’t grown into his lanky 6-foot-1 frame yet, which is scary considering the impact he’s already showing with the bat. A former shortstop, he’s taken off on both sides of the ball since the Brewers moved him to center field coming out of the pandemic, adjusting very quickly to the outfield to the point where he projects as a plus defender in center. He’s had on-and-off elbow issues going back to when he signed, and missed a week and a half with a sore elbow this August, although he returned to hit three homers in his first three games and four in his first five. Chourio is very aggressive at the plate, walking only 7.3 percent of the time last year and striking out 26.8 percent of the time, and he really struggled in that brief time in Double A as pitchers could exploit that lack of discipline — but he was also the youngest player to get a single at-bat in Double A in 2022. He’s the same age as many high school seniors who’ll be drafted this June, and he already has a 20-homer pro season under his belt. With his tools and ability to provide value on defense up the middle, he has as much upside as any player on this list.
Jackson Chourio (Brad Krause / Four Seam Images via AP)2. Sal Frelick, OF (No. 41)
Age: 23 | 5-10 | 180 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 15 in 2021
Frelick was the Brewers’ first-round pick in 2021, a surprise selection given the top-10 buzz he’d had all spring, although the lack of home run power and his smaller size may have steered some teams away from him. He went out right away that summer and played 35 games, finishing in High A, which set him up well for 2022, where he was in Double A in less than a month and ended the year banging on the doors of Miller Park, hitting .365/.435/.508 in 46 games for Triple-A Nashville. Frelick is a plus defender in center and plus-plus runner who hits the ball harder than you’d expect for a 5-10 guy of medium build, although I think Alex Bregman should probably have made us all get over any biases on that front. He puts the ball on the ground quite a bit, which isn’t the worst thing when you can run like he does, but he could be a high doubles/triples guy if he can swap out some groundballs for more hits in the air. His short swing has always made him tough to strike out, and he punched out just 11 percent of the time last year, dropping below 10 percent in that stint with Nashville, where he hit like the next line drive was going to carry him all the way to Milwaukee. There’s a lower ceiling on a player like Frelick even with the performance, between his lack of power and the batted-ball profile, but he will be an everyday center fielder for a long time, and even if he’s “just” an average regular, that’s a very valuable guy.
3. Jeferson Quero, C (No. 45)
Age: 20 | 5-10 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019
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Quero was snakebit in 2021, suffering a concussion, a hamstring injury, and a dislocated shoulder, enough that he might as well have been one of those Unlucky Andersons. I guess he put some butter on it, since he played 95 games in 2022 plus a stint in the AFL at just 19 years old, hitting .286/.342/.439 between Low A and High A with just a 19 percent strikeout rate. He’s an above-average to plus defender with an easy plus arm, throwing out 30 percent of runners during the regular season and 46 percent in the AFL, so the bar for him to clear to just project as a backup is pretty low. He has a short, slashing swing that produces a lot of contact, with some sneaky pop, hitting 10 homers in 2022, and he might get to 45 power at his peak. He’s at the smaller end of the range for catchers, and the 80 games he caught last year (including the fall) were obviously his career high, so durability is the main variable when considering his future. I see a high floor here, with a good chance for an above-average regular who hits for average with some doubles power and even steals a few bags.
4. Joey Wiemer, OF (No. 91)
Age: 24 | 6-5 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: R
Drafted: 121 in 2020
Wiemer is a high-variance guy for a college product, but has significant upside even though he’ll be 24 in February, because he has some huge tools and should be valuable even if he doesn’t hit for much average. He’s a super-athletic outfielder who’s a plus defender in center, with 60 speed and a 70 or better arm. He has ridiculous power — I had a scout refer to it as “stupid power,” and he meant that as a compliment — that should lead to 25-30 homers a year in the majors. The question is all around the hit tool. He’s not a hacker, but he swings hard, and there’s both some chase and some in-zone miss. He might only hit .220-.230, but the rest of the tools would still give him enough value to be a regular, with power, baserunning, and plus defense up the middle. If he does hit, cutting down on the whiffs on strikes, then he could be an All-Star — and one the fans love for his aggressive style of play, too.
5. Tyler Black, IF (No. 96)
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 33 in 2021
Black was the Brewers’ second selection in 2021, taken with a competitive balance pick near the end of the first round out of Wright State University, making him the next-highest drafted player in that school’s history after left-handed pitcher Brian Anderson. Black is an on-base machine, hitting .281/.406/.424 with more walks than strikeouts in High A before he fractured his scapula making a diving catch in center field, returning to play for about three weeks in the Arizona Fall League before he broke his thumb. He plays hard all the time, including in his at-bats, where he follows pitches all the way into the mitt and has excellent pitch selection, especially in those critical 1-1 counts. He’s a solid-average runner who will probably fare better than that on the bases because of his aggressiveness, while his lack of plus speed and a fringy arm make second base his best position, although he can play the outfield if needed. He may not have the power to be more than a strong regular, but he has a very high floor as a super-utility player who has value because of his ability to hit and get on base.
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6. Garrett Mitchell, OF (just-missed list)
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 20 in 2020
Mitchell was the Brewers’ first-round pick in 2020, but he’s only played in 160 total games in two full seasons since then, including his 28-game stint in the majors last season. He’s a 70 defender in center who can show 80 run times out of the box, with a slappy approach that won’t produce power but might let him add some hits via his speed. There were concerns about his durability going back to high school between his slender frame and his Type 1 diabetes. I don’t know anywhere near enough about the latter to pass judgment, but he’s missed a lot of time in pro ball, and that’s often a good indicator of a player’s durability long-term. Between that and the lack of power, I think he could still be a regular, but is more likely to be a good extra guy or a “soft” regular who starts for a second-division club.
7. Brice Turang, SS
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 173 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 21 in 2018
Turang is a great example of how a player can miss the top 100 and even the just-missed list and still be a good prospect. He hits reasonably well, runs the bases extremely well, has probably 45 power, and can play 55 or better defense at shortstop. He could probably move to center if needed, or third, although he’s most valuable at short. I like Turang, but I don’t see a ton of upside, and that’s fine as he should be a solid-average regular as a shortstop as is.
8. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-7 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 63 in 2022
Misiorowski started last spring walking a man an inning for two-year Crowder College, and finished it sitting 99-100 in one-inning looks in instructs, with a plus-plus slider. He’s 6-foot-7 and has a rough delivery, but this stuff shows up at the top of rotations or in the highest-leverage relief roles. He needs a third pitch as well, after throwing nothing else but fastball/slider in juco.
9. Eric Brown, SS
Age: 22 | 5-10 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 27 in 2022
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The Brewers’ first-round pick in 2022 out of Coastal Carolina, Brown is a plus-plus runner with a noisy approach at the plate, showing all kinds of pointless movement before he gets his swing moving the right way. He rarely chases stuff out of the zone, though, and projects to stay at shortstop, giving the Brewers plenty to work with. He got rave reviews for his makeup from scouts last spring.
10. Robert Gasser, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 71 in 2021 (Padres)
Gasser came over in the Josh Hader trade, and the Brewers started moving him back toward the middle of the rubber from the extreme third base side so he’d regain some of his natural deception against left-handed batters. He’s mostly fastball/slider, with both pitches showing plus, but needs to improve his changeup to stick as a starter; he gave up 11 homers last year, 10 to right-handed batters, along with 30 of the 31 doubles he allowed and all 4 triples, which is a long way of saying he had too much of a platoon split. His delivery is fine and I think the changeup can improve to average with more use and better mound position to start.
11. Carlos Rodriguez, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 177 in 2021
Rodríguez was born in Nicaragua but came into pro ball via the draft after he went to juco in Florida. He had a stellar pro debut in 2022, with a 30 percent strikeout rate between low and High A with a 9.3 percent walk rate. He limited hard contact at those levels with a three-pitch mix where he can also cut the fastball slightly; he’s up to 94 mph with some tilt on the slider and a solid-average changeup, with no platoon split at all last year. He’s only 5-foot-11 or 6-0, and not that physical, so I’d like to see how better hitters see his fastball. His delivery works and so far he’s shown good feel for using his stuff and trying to get quick outs. It doesn’t mean much, but I did enjoy seeing in his game log that his second-to-last outing of 2022 was an 18-up, 18-down performance with 9 punchouts at Peoria.
12. Ethan Small, LHP
Age: 26 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 28 in 2019
Small is a deception guy, getting big extension out front so his average fastball/changeup combo can play up, but he’s never thrown enough strikes to truly profile as a starter and his slurvy breaking ball doesn’t dominate lefties. I think he’s more of a swingman/reliever in the end.
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13. Luis Lara, OF
Age: 18 | 5-9 | 155 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022
Lara is small, maybe 5-foot-8, but he’s a plus runner who can handle centerfield and shows good command of the strike zone for a 17-year-old, even with some inconsistent mechanics at the plate. He’s a switch-hitter and signed in January 2022 for a $1.1 million bonus, but, more importantly, he’s unrelated to Gilbert Lara, one of the biggest busts in IFA history.
14. Daniel Guilarte, SS
Age: 19 | 6-0 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
Many of the Brewers’ best international free agent signees in the last three cycles have been undersized guys who can really hit, with Guilarte another in that mold. He’s a medium-probability shortstop with a short swing, needing to add a lot of strength but already showing a solid approach and contact rates. He struggled a little with injuries last year, only playing 36 games in the Arizona Complex League, but did hit .307/.403/.371.
15. Gregory Barrios, SS
Age: 19 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
So the Brewers signed a player named Barrios to a $1.385 million bonus in January 2022, their top bonus in that IFA cycle. This isn’t that guy — that’s Johan, this is Gregory, who signed for $1 million the January before, and they’re not related. Johan’s a third baseman, primarily, while Gregory is a high-probability shortstop. Gregory is also a plus runner with solid instincts on the bases, but he’s still wiry lean and has to gain some strength to hit enough to profile as a regular. Johan debuted in the DSL last summer and hit .292/.351/.350, although he’s more projectable physically.
16. Freddy Zamora, SS
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 53 in 2020
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Zamora, who was born in Nicaragua and attended the University of Miami, dislocated his non-throwing shoulder on a swing last year and missed all but 24 games of the season. When healthy, he’s a no-doubt shortstop who puts the ball in play and had just started to show a little pop in the second half of 2021. The injury doesn’t help, as he needs the reps at the plate, but still has a slight probability of everyday upside.
17. Felix Valerio, 2B
Age: 22 | 5-7 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018 (New York Mets)
I had higher hopes for the fun-sized Valerio after the 2021 season, where he hit very well in Low A and spent the last month in High A, but he slumped last year after the Brewers bumped him all the way to Double A in what looks now like a too-aggressive promotion. He hit just .228/.313/.357, still putting the ball in play a ton but with no results. He was bothered by a sore ankle much of the season, but tried to play through it, as there was no significant injury to the joint. It’s possible that sapped his strength (given how most good hitters use their legs to help drive the ball) enough to explain the drop in his BABIP from .354 in Low A to .249 last season. We’ll see if the bat perks up after he rests the ankle for an offseason, after which we’ll also have to see if his glove and footwork at second make up for his below-average arm.
18. Carlos Rodriguez, OF
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 186 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
International signing in 2017
This Carlos Rodríguez is Venezuelan and signed for $1.355 million back in 2017, along with Larry Ernesto, whose name appears below in a less optimistic context. Rodríguez is probably a tweener/fourth outfielder who can’t play center and doesn’t have the power for the corners, but he does have some feel to hit and could have value in a part-time role. He tore his ACL Tagg Bozied-style last year, running through the bag at first and jumping up in frustration when the ump called out, only to tear the ligament when he landed. Never have feelings, kids.
19. Jace Avina, OF
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 417 in 2021
Milwaukee’s 14th-round pick in 2021 out of a Nevada high school, Avina debuted last year in the ACL at age 19, hit 10 homers in 36 games (and .294/.436/.630 overall), then bounced up to Low A and hit .245/.336/.471 with 5 more homers in 28 games. I omitted the part where he struck out 35 percent of the time, which is kind of a problem, but it was also his first time playing in games since May 2021. It’s real power and he has a chance to stay in center, so I’m staying with him as a possible if low-probability regular even with the whiffs.
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20. Hendry Mendez, OF
Age: 19 | 6-2 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
International signing in 2021
Another player hurt by the mass extinction event that MLB thrust on the minor leagues, as Mendez really needed the intermediate step of short-season ball, as he wasn’t strong enough to impact the ball against Low A pitching, slugging .318 last year as an 18-year-old for Carolina. He’s all projection and could end up with 55 power when he fills out, which he’ll need as he’s more likely to go to a corner than stick up the middle.
Others of note
Righty Abner Uribe throws 101 mph with a 90 mph slider, but strikes have almost always been a problem for him. The fastball plays down but the slider is a plus-plus pitch and should get him to the big leagues, even without a third pitch. He missed almost all of 2022 with a knee injury but did come back for the Arizona Fall League, where he only walked two guys in 10 innings, which is some Greg Maddux-level work compared to his track record. He’s a good athlete who should be able to make adjustments and improve his control … Second baseman Robert Moore, son of former Royals exec Dayton Moore, had a horrible spring at Arkansas, but the Brewers still took a chance on him regaining his ability to hit for average with some doubles power with their second-round pick … Outfielder Hedbert Perez has huge power but no selectivity, chasing balls well out of the zone in Low A last year for a .272 OBP and 30 percent K rate. He also gained too much weight last offseason and has been working to get down to a reasonable playing weight this winter so he can stay in the outfield … Right-hander Logan Henderson was their fourth-round pick in 2021 but missed most of last season after spring surgery to fix a bone spur in his elbow. He’s got a three-pitch mix but a high-effort delivery and he’s only about 5-foot-11, making a relief role much more likely.
2023 impact
They don’t lack for center field options, do they? Mitchell seems to be first in line but Frelick is breathing down his neck. Small could get spot starts or long relief work at some point.
The fallen
The Brewers gave outfielder Larry Ernesto a $1.8 million bonus in 2017, but the Dominican outfielder never even advanced out of the complex leagues, hitting .216/.276/.329 before Milwaukee released him last year.
Sleeper
Misiorowski even got some votes from scouts and analysts I asked about the top 100 this year. If he shows he can throw strikes with this kind of super-premium stuff for a full year, he’ll be on it next winter.
(Photo of Sal Frelick: Danny Parker / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
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